TY  - JOUR
T1  - Burden Profile, Temporal Trends, and Projections of Bladder Cancer in China: A Systematic Study Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 
AU  - Shi, Xiaoyue
AU  - Cao, Wei
AU  - Wang, Chenran
AU  - Xie, Jiaxin
AU  - Luo, Zilin
AU  - Chen, Xiaolu
AU  - Guo, Zeming
AU  - Qin, Yixuan
AU  - Wang, Yu
AU  - Dong, Xuesi
AU  - Wang, Fei
AU  - Li, Ni
JF  - Cancer Screening and Prevention
VL  - 5
IS  - 2
SN  - 2835-3315
SP  - 121
EP  - 131
Y1  - 2026-06-30
DO  - 10.14218/CSP.2026.00038
UR  - https://www.xiahepublishing.com/2835-3315/CSP-2026-00038
AB  - Background and objectives 
Bladder cancer (BC) remains a major public health concern in China, but comprehensive and up-to-date assessments of its burden and temporal patterns remain limited. This study aimed to systematically evaluate the current burden, temporal trends, and future projections of BC in China using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
Methods
Data on BC incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, and risk-attributable mortality in China from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression, with a maximum of six joinpoints allowed, to estimate annual percentage changes and average annual percentage changes. Age-period-cohort models based on log-linear Poisson regression were used to examine age, period, and cohort effects. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were then applied to project incidence and mortality rates to 2030 while accounting for age-period-cohort effects and demographic changes.
Results
From 1990 to 2023, crude incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year rates increased, whereas age-standardized rates generally declined (average annual percentage changes = −0.32%, −1.31%, and −1.62%, respectively). Recent upward trends were nevertheless observed across all three indicators, particularly for incidence and mortality during 2020–2023 (annual percentage changes = 5.05% and 4.39%, respectively). Local drifts were negative in most age groups but approached or exceeded zero in the oldest groups. The incidence local drift was 0.35% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.07%, 0.78%) in the 85–89-year age group and 0.64% (95% CI: −0.31%, 1.61%) in the 90–94-year age group, whereas the corresponding mortality local drifts were −0.70% (95% CI: −0.97%, −0.43%) and −0.18% (95% CI: −0.72%, 0.36%), respectively. Compared with the reference period (2004–2008), the relative risks for incidence and mortality in 2019–2023 were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91–0.98) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71–0.78), respectively. Compared with the reference cohort (1951–1956), earlier birth cohorts had elevated risks; in the 1901–1906 cohort, the relative risks were 1.13 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.57) for incidence and 2.10 (95% CI: 1.75, 2.52) for mortality. During 2024–2030, both crude incidence and crude mortality rates were projected to increase further.
Conclusions
Despite long-term declines in age-standardized rates, BC remains a substantial burden in China, and recent upward trends warrant attention. These findings support targeted primary prevention and risk-stratified early-detection strategies for high-risk populations.